The study of history and the plausibility for the alternative approach

The horizontal axis represents the Prior Probability. Realizing their new rival is the US, the Soviets make sure through sabotage and covert aid to Japan that America is tied up with the Pacific War.

Sliding Scale of Alternate History Plausibility

Journey to Fusang by William Sanders: Yet counterfactualism continues on, in sly evidential claims and implicit ones as well, especially in contemporary literature created for the masses.

Fact and Fiction are often so well blended that you have to be an expert in the subject matter to tell the two apart or to know that events that went a, b, c, d in real life go b, d, a, c in the novel. Apart from this and a stunning amount of convergences, this timeline may be best known for two endings: America and China got involved with reconstruction, bringing in massive waves of immigrants with them.

The German intervention in China is also something that almost certainly would not have happened in this or any other plausible alternate history. These are works that incorporate both Hard and Soft elements.

In the event that we misinterprete their will or beliefs, we can make claims that are completely irrelevant to the time. Neil Smith has imagined had a special emphasis on the individual property rights of citizens all along, slavery would most likely have been abolished later than in our timeline, if at all.

In one particularly interesting case, authors discovered that John F. Lizards from Outer Space invade during World War 2 and the Axis and Allies must set aside their differences to save Earth from alien conquest! Comic Books Watchmen becomes a type X because of the existence of Dr.

It being Type IV is heavily lampshade hung - The best guess for how it could possibly exist by the people who in the Infinite Worlds setting study alternate worlds is basically a God with a cruel sense of humor pranking people who study alternate worlds.

Because for implausible claims, ordinary evidence is highly unreliable. Plausible enough by itself but what puts it in Type IV territory is the reason: If clinical evidence is solid, that is enough, and often in the history of medicine lead to discoveries about mechanism and biology.

As Gunn puts it: Lets start with a very basic study design. Literature Another obligatory Harry Turtledove example: In this case, not only is the game set in an Alternate Universebut the concept of alternate universes is explored directly, with the implication that an infinite number of universes with Columbia — differing in some details but constant in others — exist and also that an infinite number of universes without Columbia also exist, and that Columbia itself is the result of a single alternate decision between the realities with and without it; the protagonist and the primary supporting character are eventually revealed to be from one of the realities where Columbia never existed, transplanted to Columbia for the specific purpose of eventually erasing all Columbia universes from existence.

There are also non-controversial historical examples, such as N-rays. As noted in Chapter 2it is important to document the methods and the analysis results that led to conclusions about causal associations to ensure that evaluations are conducted in a consistent and transparent manner.

Then, at the end ofit returns and bombs New York. Investigation their questions led to his discovery of numerous grandiose claims for implausible, unproven treatments of potentially blinding eye diseases. Research is often detailed and intensive, Butterflies are followed logically, and with attention to details, such as the economic or logistical feasibility of an invasion.

We can modify the table to include the Power of the study. His interest in the less-than-science-based aspects of medicine was sparked by inquiries from his patients. But even if we assume this to be try, counterfactuals may be no more than a boost in the imagination to aid any seeker on their road to discovery, only helping along in the construction of claims that lead to a discovery only cemented by evidence.

For less powerful studies, the positive predictive value is even weaker. Ironically, many Type X works can become very "Hard" following an initial fantastical PoD, diligently using historical research and Butterflies to see what would logically happen if the Cherokees really did have Kalashnikov assault rifles in Derived from Kenneth Macksey, Invasion: The take-home message of the graph above is this: In order to accept the results of study favoring the study treatment, the P value must be at or below the predefined critical P value.

The Memorandum proposes using modifications to the IOM Vaccine Approach IOM, a to determine general causality, but provides no description of what those modifications might be for agents with less robust human data.

What follows is an absolute horror show involving atomic bombingsChild SoldiersDeadly Gasthe Americans accidentally killing Hirohitoand the ultimate division of Japan into five separate nations. Rule of Funny is strictly in charge for most of the film. This is the exact type of scenario raised by David Katz during our discussion.

Sliding Scale of Alternate History Plausibility

Heydrich survives his assassination possible - maybe the assassins were less lucky or Heydrich decides to protect himself adequatelyOperation Blau succeeds unlikely, especially if the Germans follow the historical planthe Soviet winter counter-offensive of fails unlikely, and Blau succeeding would worsen German over-extension and therefore the likelihood of the Soviet operation succeedingthe German summer offensive of succeeds unlikely, Soviet forces around Moscow and Leningrad were well-entrenched and by that time would have been passably well-armed, trained, and ledthe Soviet winter counter-offensive of fails possible?

With a point of divergence that starts with a successful repelling of the Normandy invasion due to an unexplained influx of jet aircraft on the German side, Nazi Germany manages to completely turn the tide of the war, and conquer both the United Kingdom and the United States.

Relevant approaches developed by the IOM that could be useful in guiding modifications are discussed later in this chapter.

This is the exact type of scenario raised by David Katz during our discussion.This approach to evaluation focuses on the practicali-ties of defining successful outcomes and success cases (Brinkerhoff, ) and where generalization is not a goal, a case study design, with an emphasis on the collection of qualitative data, might be most appropriate.

Case studies. In the IOM Agent Orange Approach (e.g., NASEM, b) and the IOM Gulf War Approach (e.g., NASEM, c), animal and mechanistic studies are evaluated for the purpose of determining whether they suggest biological plausibility of agent- and outcome-specific associations identified in epidemiological studies.

Furthermore, the animal and. Herman Philipse.2 Aviezer Tucker has argued that the professional study of history would benefit from a Bayesian approach. 3 Richard Carrier has recently argued for the general use of Bayes’ Theorem, and.

For the study of our drug, lets assume the drug has a prior probability of.5, meaning that going into our study, there is a 50/50 chance that the drug is effective.

This is probably a reasonable estimate for a drug with a valid preclinical foundation, and promising phase 2 data. A question that arises often when discussing the optimal role of science in medicine is the precise role of plausibility, or prior probability. This is, in fact, the central concept that separates (for practical if not philosophical reasons) science-based medicine (SBM) from evidence-based medicine.

Type I - Hard Alternate History: These are works that adhere to very strict, even scientific standards in their plausibility. Research is often detailed and intensive, Butterflies are followed logically, and with attention to details, such as the economic or logistical feasibility of an invasion.

The study of history and the plausibility for the alternative approach
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